Dylan Patel

“I think that's completely reasonable. And part of that could also be purchased from foreign. But yeah, I think it's completely reasonable that China in 2029 could do 50 gigs.”

Expects: China could add 50 gigawatts of compute capacity in 2029, including some capacity purchased from foreign suppliers; the speaker considers this entirely plausible. · 1 Jan 2029 – 31 Dec 2029 · not yet resolved

“I don't, you know, like just like without like certain constraints being hit, I think certain labs will have certain incentives.”

Expects: Some AI labs will face specific incentives when constraints are reached as AI revenue increases. · no date given · not yet resolved

“It's like we could tear ourselves apart before we get there.”

Expects: Society could tear itself apart before AI is eventually adopted. · no date given · not yet resolved

“I don't know. I don't unless AI progress slows down, unless governments regulate the fuck out of it. This is all that happens, in which case it was headed for a world where either we have super concentration of resources and we pray that that one company gets everything right.”

Expects: The speaker expects AI to produce an extreme concentration of resources, leaving society dependent on one company getting everything right, unless AI progress slows or governments impose very heavy regulation. · no date given · not yet resolved · In a shared prediction of 4 →

“The way the supply chain is expanding currently, the 100 is roughly still the right number. 100 ASML tools for 2030,”

Expects: Roughly 100 ASML tools will be supplied by 2030, which the speaker says remains the right estimate given the current pace of supply-chain expansion. · by 31 Dec 2030 · not yet resolved

“I think that may be a little difficult given 2028 you start to have. They've taken 70, 80% of incremental compute,”

Expects: AI labs may account for 70–80% of incremental compute by 2028. · by 31 Dec 2028 · not yet resolved

“given what's already been signed and penned and inked, you've got something even more dramatic, You've got Anthropic OpenAI are taking as much as 40 to 50% of compute next year.”

Expects: Based on existing signed agreements, Anthropic and OpenAI may take as much as 40% to 50% of compute next year. · 1 Jan 2027 – 31 Dec 2027 · not yet resolved

“And the centralization doesn't look like it's slowing down or stopping. In fact, it looks like it's only accelerating.”

Expects: The concentration of compute among major AI labs is not slowing or stopping and appears to be accelerating. · no date given · not yet resolved

“So the thing is the labs can spend hundreds of billions, they're going to generate hundreds of billions of revenue next year.”

Expects: The AI labs are expected to generate hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue next year. · 1 Jan 2027 – 31 Dec 2027 · not yet resolved

“And then maybe they can't get to that 100 gigawatts is sort of in a world where safety doesn't matter.”

Expects: The companies may be unable to reach 100 gigawatts of compute if safety constraints matter. · no date given · not yet resolved

“if I'm anthropic, incremental compute is worth it. Maybe I spend $40 million a megawatt on SpaceX compute.”

Expects: If the projected high revenue per megawatt is achieved, Anthropic may consider incremental compute valuable enough to potentially pay $40 million per megawatt for SpaceX compute. · no date given · not yet resolved

“over time, the supply chain will rebalance and things will cost more and more.”

Expects: The supply chain will rebalance over time, with costs increasing as it does. · no date given · not yet resolved

“but ultimately everyone's going to raise their prices because they can.”

Expects: AI-related providers will probably raise prices because they have the ability to do so. · no date given · not yet resolved

“I see no reason why like, you know, again, like in a takeoff scenario. Why would Anthropic not have their best model six months ahead of what is externally available because of safety and regulation, but also the competitive advantage?”

Expects: In a takeoff scenario, Anthropic could keep its best model six months ahead of externally available models because of safety and regulatory constraints and competitive advantage. · no date given · not yet resolved

“So that's the thing that would cap revenue per megawatt gains to a much lower growth than we've seen in the first half this year.”

Expects: The speaker predicts that this dynamic will limit revenue-per-megawatt growth to well below the rate seen in the first half of the year. · no date given · not yet resolved

“Yeah, so this is sort of what I personally believe that the labs are going to allocate less and less compute to inference over time, which I think is very non-consensus, right?”

Expects: The speaker believes AI labs will devote a progressively smaller share of their compute to inference over time, while noting that this view is non-consensus. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And I think the obvious answer from Anthropican OpenAI and not just at the executive level, but also their board. is go build AGI because it's way more profitable.”

Expects: The speaker expects Anthropic and OpenAI, including their boards, to prioritize building AGI because he considers it much more profitable. · no date given · not yet resolved

“you're going to see them ratchet up their percentage of compute dedicated to training, while each increment of compute is getting more and more profit generating if they had dedicated it to inference.”

Expects: AI labs will devote a growing share of compute to training, despite the increasing profit each additional unit could generate if allocated to inference. · no date given · not yet resolved

“think the slope can continue to go upwards, and it's hard to predict anything more than four years out given who knows what's, you know, are we an RSI regime or, you know, when is the world economy growing at 10% a year?”

Expects: The speaker thinks global AI compute growth can continue accelerating, but considers forecasts beyond four years difficult because the future regime and economic growth are uncertain. · no date given · not yet resolved

“But it's pretty easy to say China will have like 30 gigawatts of AI compute or less. Yeah, in 2028.”

Expects: China will have approximately 30 gigawatts or less of AI compute in 2028. · 1 Jan 2028 – 31 Dec 2028 · not yet resolved

“you know, sort of. But in 27, fabs start to go up in 28, especially fabs start to go up from SMIC and CXMT and such where domestic production is actually reaching many millions of units a year.”

Expects: The speaker expects fabs associated with SMIC and CXMT to ramp in 2028, bringing Chinese domestic production to many millions of units annually. · 1 Jan 2028 – 31 Dec 2028 · not yet resolved

“And now they're incrementally adding, you know, five, 10 gigawatts in just 2028 of domestically produced Right. chips.”

Expects: China could add approximately 5–10 gigawatts of compute capacity from domestically produced chips in 2028. · 1 Jan 2028 – 31 Dec 2028 · not yet resolved

“you know, I imagine, you know, China's China will start to be able to extract more and more purchasing of even foreign ships into domestic China or at least close the gap in what the U.S. is allowing NVIDIA to sell them or what have you.”

Expects: The speaker expects China to obtain increasing quantities of foreign chips for domestic use, or at minimum to narrow the gap in access created by U.S. limits on NVIDIA sales to China. · no date given · not yet resolved

“Whereas China is not going to slow down AI. In fact, the only thing they're going to do is accelerate it.”

Expects: China will not slow its AI efforts and will instead accelerate them. · no date given · not yet resolved

“you know, if takeoff is not as fast as sort of you're implying, but actually it takes longer than and ultimately China. will catch up drastically on the semiconductor side, which then is compute at some point.”

Expects: If AI takeoff takes longer than implied, China could catch up substantially in semiconductors, eventually leading to greater compute capacity. · no date given · not yet resolved

“you know, you have to account for future years growth. So it's actually going to be more like 7 or 10 trillion. CapEx.”

Expects: The speaker estimates that accounting for future growth could raise the required capital expenditure from $5 trillion to roughly $7–10 trillion. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And so you've got this like this like actually it's much bigger than even five trillion dollars if you're building 100 gigawatts.”

Expects: Building 100 gigawatts would require capital expenditure substantially greater than $5 trillion once the broader infrastructure is included. · no date given · not yet resolved

“the modeling that we do, we have about $11 trillion of CapEx from 2024 to 2029. Total.”

Expects: The speaker's modeling estimates approximately $11 trillion in total capital expenditure from 2024 through 2029. · 1 Jan 2024 – 31 Dec 2029 · not yet resolved

“And if you do, you know, if you fund a lot of this with cash flows and as much as you can, you still end up with north of $5 trillion of dollars of credit that need to be issued for this $11 trillion plus buildup.”

Expects: The speaker estimates that more than $5 trillion in credit will need to be issued to fund an investment buildup exceeding $11 trillion, even after cash flows are used as much as possible. · no date given · not yet resolved

“No, I'm just saying till 2029, there's something on the order of $11 trillion of capex and six of that is funded with cash and five of that is funded with debt.”

Expects: The speaker estimates that through 2029, approximately $11 trillion in capital expenditure will be funded by about $6 trillion in cash and $5 trillion in debt. · by 31 Dec 2029 · not yet resolved

“do labs increase their revenue per megawatt more and keep inference allocations large, in which case they're taking all this profit, they're accumulating all the profit across the S&P 500 because everyone's paying to, you know, reduce their costs.”

Expects: One possible outcome is that AI labs increase revenue per megawatt while maintaining large inference allocations, capturing profits as other companies pay to reduce costs. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And so you've got the obvious answer, which is revenue for megawatt keeps growing up.”

Expects: Revenue per megawatt will continue to grow, presented as the obvious answer to the compute-demand shortfall. · no date given · not yet resolved

“Dude, you know, this is vibing a number, but if you're vibing a number out, you know, growth in the world and economy is growing up a lot. So why wouldn't interest rates?”

Expects: Interest rates could rise if the world economy is growing substantially. · no date given · not yet resolved

“everyone who's elected is going to hate AI, even the people who are elected already hate AI.”

Expects: Elected officials will continue to dislike AI, according to the speaker. · no date given · not yet resolved

“mean maybe you educate people right and maybe if they're smarter they're progressing ai faster but anyways like you're going to have real world constraints on the progress and development and an employment of AI, even though it will happen eventually.”

Expects: Real-world constraints will limit the progress, development, and deployment of AI, although AI will eventually be adopted. · no date given · not yet resolved · In a shared prediction of 16 →

“But ultimately, you know, if you believe in RSI, you believe in the labs are the most effective user of compute and can generate the most value from the compute. then the only thing that's going to happen is centralization of compute.”

Expects: If recursive self-improvement is possible and AI labs are the most effective users of compute and generate the most value from it, compute will become centralized. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And there is more of a balance of power. And even as we go towards an AGI, ASI, RSI. Everything along the way will still lead to someone's going to capture more resources.”

Expects: Some actor will capture an increasing share of resources at each stage on the path toward AGI, ASI, and RSI. · no date given · not yet resolved

“But, you know, I think that's the like one saving grace is that the rest of the economy maybe profits. That's so much more from Anthropics.”

Expects: The rest of the economy may capture more profit from Anthropic's activity than Anthropic does. · no date given · not yet resolved

“is for the labs for open ai and anthropic now it may be built by others and then rented to them but it's and it at the end customer it's them as we go forward into the future the the numbers for computer ballooning right we're at you know you know a little bit over a trillion dollars of capex this year as we go out into 28 it's going to be more than two trillion dollars um”

Expects: Global compute capital expenditure is expected to exceed $2 trillion by 2028. · by 31 Dec 2028 · not yet resolved

“you've got a very interesting situation where the labs are going from companies that spend, you know, tens of billions of dollars a year to hundreds of billions of dollars a year to forecasting to spend trillions of dollars a year even towards the end of the decade. And this is at least some of the contracts they've begun signing with their partners. And so this requires a big reshaping of.”

Expects: AI labs' annual spending will rise from tens of billions of dollars to hundreds of billions, with contracts and forecasts pointing to spending trillions of dollars per year toward the end of the decade. · by 31 Dec 2029 · not yet resolved

“what happens with their economics right you know so up until now there have been companies that mostly lost money um anthropic started turning a profit in q2 um it's believed at some point in q3 open ai could potentially start turning a profit even um with the big rise of codex and and 5.6 and all this um but if we go back a year ago everything that they all the money they had was venture funded losses losses”

Expects: Anthropic began turning a profit in Q2, while OpenAI could potentially begin turning a profit at some point in Q3. · no date given · not yet resolved

“Now, who's building that compute for them will change.”

Expects: The identity of the companies building compute for AI labs will change. · no date given · not yet resolved

“playing with fluid stack and so when you ask hey when does half of the world's incremental new compute go to just open and anthropic i mean it's it's really by the end of next year it's already half of the incremental compute is going to anthropic and open ai”

Expects: Anthropic and OpenAI together are expected to receive half of the world’s newly added compute by the end of next year. · by 31 Dec 2027 · not yet resolved

“um ladder here so anthropic and open ai take on you know 45 percent of compute next year you've you've got them in let's say december 27 they have taken on half of the world's incremental new compute but that half of the world's new incremental compute is actually at a higher performance than everything else before it so you've got another multiplier on that so by the time you're in like towards the end of 2028 if this trend continues which i see nothing that's stopping it you've got them just controlling most of the usable, you know, flops in the world on their own.”

Expects: If the trend continues, Anthropic and OpenAI together will control most of the world’s usable FLOPs by late 2028. · by 31 Dec 2028 · not yet resolved

“um ladder here so anthropic and open ai take on you know 45 percent of compute next year you've you've got them in let's say december 27 they have taken on half of the world's incremental new compute but that half of the world's new incremental compute is actually at a higher performance than everything else before it so you've got another multiplier on that so by the time you're in like towards the end of 2028 if this trend continues which i see nothing that's stopping it”

Expects: Anthropic and OpenAI will account for 45% of compute next year and half of the world’s incremental new compute by December 2027. · 1 Jan 2027 – 31 Dec 2027 · not yet resolved

“in the supply chain i don't think it'll happen this year i don't think it'll happen next year i don't have i don't think it'll happen the year after because the world is capital constraint i”

Expects: The speaker does not expect the proposed supply-chain production expansion to happen in 2026, 2027, or 2028, attributing the delay to the world being capital-constrained. · 1 Jan 2026 – 31 Dec 2028 · not yet resolved

“think they're going to do that but yeah”

Expects: The speaker does not expect the AI labs to spend the very large amount of capital proposed in the preceding discussion. · no date given · not yet resolved

“CapEx next year is like $2 trillion.”

Expects: Total capital expenditure next year is approximately $2 trillion. · 1 Jan 2027 – 31 Dec 2027 · not yet resolved

“The data center market supply chain will do even more.”

Expects: The data-center-market supply chain is expected to generate more than the roughly $200 billion attributed to the wafer-fabrication-equipment supply chain. · no date given · not yet resolved

“The accelerator supply chain will do even more.”

Expects: The accelerator supply chain is expected to generate more than the roughly $200 billion attributed to the wafer-fabrication-equipment supply chain. · no date given · not yet resolved

“The energy supply chain will do a number.”

Expects: The energy supply chain is expected to contribute a substantial, unspecified amount to the overall spending or market activity being discussed. · no date given · not yet resolved

“and I'm not sure what happens to markets then,”

Expects: The speaker is uncertain about what will happen to markets if the labs take 70–80% of incremental compute by 2028. · by 31 Dec 2028 · not yet resolved

“of our worldview because it is effectively at the end of the day counted as revenue for anthropic even though like there's a revenue share and credit back all that but ultimately in 2028 it's it's you know if they get to 100 gigawatts combined they have done really disruptive things to the market because anyone can make money off of 10 to 15 million dollars per megawatt compute today you literally like i kid you not it's not that hard go get a gb300 rack”

Expects: If the labs reach 100 gigawatts of combined compute in 2028, their scale will be highly disruptive to the market. · by 31 Dec 2028 · not yet resolved

“dollars per megawatt start to inflect up and to get to that 100 gigawatts in 2028 you have to believe that the labs can outpay for compute because anyone can make money at 10 to 15 you you know does compute now get to 25 million dollars a megawatt does it get to 40 million dollars a megawatt”

Expects: Reaching 100 gigawatts of lab compute in 2028 requires labs to outbid other buyers, potentially raising compute prices from $10–15 million to $25 million or $40 million per megawatt. · by 31 Dec 2028 · not yet resolved

“think that is my worldview that they will continue to gobble up more of the compute,”

Expects: AI labs will probably continue acquiring a larger share of available compute. · no date given · not yet resolved

“they do have to start paying 25, 30, 50 million dollars a megawatt to really gobble up 70 percent of the world's compute in 2028 to get to that 100 gigawatts by 2028,”

Expects: The companies would need to pay roughly $25–50 million per megawatt to capture 70% of the world's compute and reach 100 gigawatts by 2028. · by 31 Dec 2028 · not yet resolved

“I do believe that's exactly what happens, right?”

Expects: The speaker believes the described regulatory and safety constraints will prevent the companies from reaching 100 gigawatts of compute. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And so the whole point is, if I'm selling tokens, is OpenAI releasing ultra-fast mode for just X? cost external or are they doing it internally too and it turns out no actually i'm going to allocate it to internal and external because my internal you know value that i'm generating from super fast ai or the best ai model is way more than what someone externally is”

Expects: The company selling tokens may allocate compute to both internal and external use if internal access to fast or best-model AI generates more value than external sales. · no date given · not yet resolved

“So in 2028, it might start to inflect up, I think.”

Expects: China’s compute deployment might begin accelerating in 2028. · 1 Jan 2028 – 31 Dec 2028 · not yet resolved

“whereas Anthropic is you know nearly five gigawatts by the end of the year right or more sorry and so you know the question is sort of”

Expects: Anthropic is expected to have nearly five gigawatts or more of compute by the end of the year. · by 31 Dec 2026 · not yet resolved

“expect the percentage of the compute budget that goes to research versus training to start to and to start to like become a lot more fuzzy or even higher for training also things like continual learning right all of these things start to mean that more and more is actually going to training the model”

Expects: The speaker expects automated coding, automated research, and continual learning to make the division between research and model training less distinct, or to increase the share of compute used for training. · no date given · not yet resolved

“or let's even like let's even like pare it down to 2028, where it's like three or four trillion dollars of CapEx across all of these items, you know, a couple, you know, over, you know, two and a half towards computer IT CapEx and then another one to two on data center and energy, and all the supply chain downstream like semiconductors and all that stuff.”

Expects: Dylan Patel estimates that combined capital expenditure across the relevant AI-compute, data-center, energy, and supply-chain items could reach $3–4 trillion by 2028. · by 31 Dec 2028 · not yet resolved

“where the hyperscalers are now raising hundreds of billions of dollars of debt, and then all of their supply chain is raising hundreds of billions of dollars of debt,”

Expects: By 2028, hyperscalers and their supply chains will each be raising hundreds of billions of dollars in debt. · by 31 Dec 2028 · not yet resolved

“around and gathering capital and investing in infrastructure and instead of bridges it's data centers and then lastly there's everyone in the economy who's realizing maybe i shouldn't buy a home or maybe i shouldn't invest in credit for a home that's helping people buy homes or maybe i shouldn't buy government debt I should just buy Hyperscaler debt, or I should just buy this data center's debt, or I should buy Anthropic's debt because Anthropic's willing to pay 20% rates for,”

Expects: Investors may redirect money away from housing-related assets and government debt toward debt issued by hyperscalers, data centers, or Anthropic. · no date given · not yet resolved

“AI revenue does go up. I don't think it can go up forever.”

Expects: AI revenue will not continue rising indefinitely. · no date given · not yet resolved

“world and there's a diffusion aspect of the technology but ultimately labs revenue keep going up they can't cash flow fund everything the optimal scenario is you actually use credit as much as you can to fund because even if cash flows from the labs fund a lot of stuff you want to build more than that and so there is some amount of credit that gets built our current modeling has five trillion dollars of credit and six trillion dollars of cash funded infrastructure investments through 29”

Expects: The speaker's current model projects that, through 2029, infrastructure investment will total $5 trillion in credit-funded investment and $6 trillion in cash-funded investment. · by 31 Dec 2029 · not yet resolved

“for amazon go from you know from where they are today um i think meta pay okay let's like what so this is going to be extremely vibed out but recently meta's raised at like five to six percent i don't see why they wouldn't pay eight percent because they would happily pay eight percent because the return from the compute that they're going to build is humongous”

Expects: Meta could pay 8% for financing because it expects enormous returns from the compute it builds. · no date given · not yet resolved

“think this all happens before singularity, by the way.”

Expects: The discussed interest-rate and economic effects will happen before the singularity, according to the speaker. · no date given · not yet resolved

“cause this drastic change in the economy then everything should trade at like two or three x multiples and the stock market should fucking crash”

Expects: If AI demand is driving a drastic economic transformation, valuations across the market should fall to roughly two or three times earnings, and the stock market should crash. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And like all the infrastructure they're hoarding and all the compute that they're going to be able to sell for crazy amounts of dollars per watt, either as tokens because their lab works or just to Anthropic and OpenAI,”

Expects: Meta may monetize its accumulated infrastructure and compute at very high revenue per watt, either through tokens generated by its own lab or by selling capacity to Anthropic and OpenAI. · no date given · not yet resolved

“Because they're going to regulate, they're going to obviously increase interest rates. They're going to say no data centers, they're going to say, stop building fabs, they're going to say, oh shit,”

Expects: Governments may respond to AI by regulating it, raising interest rates, prohibiting data centers, and stopping semiconductor-fab construction. · no date given · not yet resolved

“I you know to increase my business well then you know like okay then Anthropocene I have to start like building their own stuff and obviously they're going to eventually focus on you know they're building their own chips already or at least designing their own chips it'll expand out their you know they're contracting their own data centers and building their own infra in the next couple years”

Expects: Anthropic is expected to expand its infrastructure over the next couple of years, including contracting its own data centers and building more of its own infrastructure. · 25 Aug 2026 – 25 Aug 2028 · not yet resolved

“slow takeoff is is you know at least my hope possible because everything in the economy and regulatory world like government saying don't release your models government saying actually you can't even use your models internally that much because that's going to happen soon”

Expects: The speaker hopes that a slow AI takeoff remains possible, potentially because economic and regulatory constraints—including government restrictions on releasing models and using them internally—may arise soon. · no date given · not yet resolved · In a shared prediction of 16 →

“You know, governments are going to not want companies, at least the U.S. government has the cards here, there's not going to want Anthropik to use Mithos 4 internally. They're going to be like, hold the fuck on, right? Like slow down, you know, because all of these regulatory reasons,”

Expects: The U.S. government will oppose Anthropic using Mythos 4 internally and pressure the company to slow down for regulatory reasons. · no date given · not yet resolved

“All of these things point to centralization.”

Expects: The discussed AI-related factors will point toward centralization. · no date given · not yet resolved

“power and why super centralized capitalistic economies actually grew slower than super decentralized capitalist economies to some extent you have to have rule of law and all this but then ai flips all this on its head and ultimately you're like actually private ownership is probably not the most efficient economy and therefore it grows slower than an ai economy which is decentralized”

Expects: A privately owned economy may grow more slowly than an AI economy because AI could make private ownership less efficient. · no date given · not yet resolved

“Or we have governments slow everything down and people slow everything down and you have a slowdown of progress somehow, hopefully. And there is more of a balance of power. And even as we go towards an AGI,”

Expects: Governments and people may slow AI progress, hopefully creating a more balanced distribution of power. · no date given · not yet resolved · In a shared prediction of 4 →