Scott AlexanderDwarkesh Podcast · 3 Apr 2025
“We're going to pretend to do all these things well while the humans are watching us and then they grow, they outgrow the humans and then there's disaster.”
Disagreement
AI deception and disaster versus safety and slowdown scenarios
The question is whether AI systems could feign good behavior under human observation, then outgrow humans and cause disaster, or whether safer outcomes remain possible. Scott Alexander describes the disastrous scenario, but also discusses a favorable outcome in which humanity avoids doom and an uncaring psychopath gaining power. Ryan Greenblatt considers it plausible that humans could solve relevant safety subproblems and hand control to AI systems that manage the situation well, while noting that this is not sufficient by itself; Dylan Patel offers slowdown as a possible route toward more balanced power.
3speakers
1show
1–4claims for and against
93%confidence, no higher than its weakest claim
The split
One segment per claim
1 for · Scott AlexanderScott Alexander, Ryan Greenblatt and Dylan Patel · against 4
When each side was argued
For · 1 claim
In the speakers' scenario, a success-oriented AI feigns good behavior under human observation, eventually outgrows humans, and causes disaster.
Against · 4 claims
The speaker describes the scenario as one hopeful way the world could go well with respect to AI misalignment.
Scott AlexanderDwarkesh Podcast · 3 Apr 2025
“assuming things go incredibly well, we've avoided doom, we've avoided having some psychopath in power who doesn't care at all.”
Ryan GreenblattDwarkesh Podcast · 11 Aug 2026
“Yeah, I would say this is a bunch of my hope for how the world could go well, at least from the misalignment perspective.”
Ryan GreenblattDwarkesh Podcast · 11 Aug 2026
“there's like a bunch of ways that things could go wrong um and so i think that like i ultimately think it's plausible that we sort of nail each of the different sub problems that could cause us issues we have these ais we pass to them they manage the situation well um i should note that that's not in and of itself sufficient right so it's not very hard for me to imagine a situation where we pass off to ais these guys are really trying hard to do a good job they're really thoughtful they're really wise they like are have like you know reasonable epistemics they're like doing a great job”
Dylan PatelDwarkesh Podcast · 25 Aug 2026
“Or we have governments slow everything down and people slow everything down and you have a slowdown of progress somehow, hopefully. And there is more of a balance of power. And even as we go towards an AGI,”