Shared prediction3 speakers · 2 shows
Predictions of faster AI development and self-reinforcing industrial growth
The tracked predictions cluster around expectations of acceleration: Ajeya Cotra predicts faster, more chaotic AI development, while Daniel Kokotajlo and Dwarkesh Patel describe conditional scenarios of faster economic or industrial growth.
“it's only going to get faster from here and it's only going to get more chaotic from here.”
“And according to our calculations, the doubling time of this self replicating system would be much faster than the sort of like roughly 20 year doubling time of the current economy. And so.”