The tracked speakers describe possible favorable AI outcomes, rather than a shared, firm forecast. Ryan Greenblatt outlines a scenario in which sufficiently capable and aligned AIs recursively produce more aligned successors that follow the intended specification. Other contributions concern avoiding catastrophe, slowing AI progress to support a more balanced distribution of power, and pursuing different forms of alignment across societies—not the same recursive mechanism.
“assuming things go incredibly well, we've avoided doom, we've avoided having some psychopath in power who doesn't care at all.”
Expects: In the favorable scenario being discussed, humanity avoids doom and avoids a completely uncaring psychopath gaining power. · no date given · not yet resolved
“there's like a bunch of ways that things could go wrong um and so i think that like i ultimately think it's plausible that we sort of nail each of the different sub problems that could cause us issues we have these ais we pass to them they manage the situation well um i should note that that's not in and of itself sufficient right so it's not very hard for me to imagine a situation where we pass off to ais these guys are really trying hard to do a good job they're really thoughtful they're really wise they like are have like you know reasonable epistemics they're like doing a great job”
Expects: Humans could solve the relevant AI safety subproblems and hand the situation to AI systems that manage it well; the speaker considers this plausible. · no date given · not yet resolved
“enough and aligned enough that they get a positive and virtuous feedback loop and this happens before it's too late and then the situation goes off like gets gets back on the rails where the ais are now like making more aligned ais making more aligned ais making more aligned ais and then at the end of this process we have ais that like actually follow the spec we wanted”
Expects: AIs may become capable and aligned enough, before it is too late, to recursively produce more aligned AIs that follow the intended specification. · no date given · not yet resolved
“Or we have governments slow everything down and people slow everything down and you have a slowdown of progress somehow, hopefully. And there is more of a balance of power. And even as we go towards an AGI,”
Expects: Governments and people may slow AI progress, hopefully creating a more balanced distribution of power. · no date given · not yet resolved
“And hopefully, you know, different societies just like now with their eyes will align their eyes to a different one. So we have not just a monoculture of. alignment”
Expects: The speaker hopes that different societies will pursue different forms of AI alignment rather than converge on a single alignment monoculture. · no date given · not yet resolved