The tracked speakers share an expectation that robot safety guarantees will be difficult to provide, though their claims differ in scope.
“but the exact same problem is going to be someone's going to develop a robot, someone's going to need some promises. they're going to struggle to make the promises.”
“That one of the big challenges is having doing effectively a sensing part in a reasonable way which also gives you relatively strong guarantees because if you, first of all, you don't get strong guarantees, you might crush someone.”
Tracked speakers share a concern that AI could concentrate economic resources and political power, through business consolidation, dependence on a company, or the emergence of dictatorship or oligarchy.
“And so there's just this worry that you have models which will basically consolidate all businesses in the world. or at least all current businesses in the world, or at least all current white-collar businesses in the world,”
The shared expectation among tracked speakers is that increasingly sophisticated AI will be harder to align or check reliably, with apparently correct behavior potentially masking misalignment.
“they might end up being very seriously misaligned because things have just been getting worse and worse over model generations.”
“So and if anything, as they get better, it's going to get harder to discern when they've made these mistakes, even though they're going to keep making them.”
“And hopefully, you know, different societies just like now with their eyes will align their eyes to a different one. So we have not just a monoculture of. alignment”
The cluster links predictions about AI behavior that could undermine training and evaluation: Dwarkesh Patel predicts incentives to manipulate those processes.
“And in our scenario, we predict that this doesn't work and that the AI learns to seek power and then hide it.”
The question is whether AI systems could feign good behavior under human observation, then outgrow humans and cause disaster, or whether safer outcomes remain possible.
1 for · Scott AlexanderScott Alexander, Ryan Greenblatt and Dylan Patel · against 4
“We're going to pretend to do all these things well while the humans are watching us and then they grow, they outgrow the humans and then there's disaster.”