Walter Goodwin

“Just find a way to structurally carve out a three to six months advantage, you will be winning all of those deployments.”

Expects: A company that structurally secures a three-to-six-month advantage will win all of the relevant deployments. · no date given · not yet resolved

“generally across the economy. One is, oh no, we're not going to have as much to do. Maybe there's jobs lost.”

Expects: AI-driven productivity could reduce the amount of work available and lead to job losses across the economy. · no date given · not yet resolved

“that is both exceptionally good at the kind of gamut of workloads that are coming down the pipe under this idea of the kind of hardware lottery where these will be trained on HBM-based GPUs or XPUs.”

Expects: Future workloads will be trained on HBM-based GPUs or XPUs under the hardware-lottery dynamic. · no date given · not yet resolved

“drive value to your customers and so i think that the the sort of subtlety here is you know i'm not a believer in the idea that we will ultimately get to a place where we are shipping a fundamentally new chip uh you know every few weeks just because we've shortened that down because i think this is a this is a physical world there is a certain amount of constraint on you know data center power there are latencies to installing these things and you need to”

Expects: In the speaker's view, shorter design cycles will not result in fundamentally new chips being shipped every few weeks. · no date given · not yet resolved

“a kind of rolling frontier of bets that you hope are deeply aligned in which you're ready to trigger the ramp of this is a huge advantage if you can kind of build that machine and build that engine and the six month gap that that might then perennially give you against your competition uh that is the kind of you know wedge that allows you to drive in and we see this in frontier labs right it's the equivalent of the frontier model for the chip space is if you can just”

Expects: A company that maintains a rolling frontier of aligned bets and ramps them when ready may gain a major advantage, including a persistent six-month lead over competitors that creates a competitive wedge. · no date given · not yet resolved

“of some of those algorithms and is there a crude approximate way that you could do some of this you know the i think chip design is not going to change in the final sign-off for quite some time it's incredibly valuable to have cadence and synopsis who've been working with tsmc and the other foundries for decades to build the sort of you know the final check mark that says this thing is what we call drc and lvs clean”

Expects: The final sign-off stage of chip design is not expected to change for quite some time. · no date given · not yet resolved

“But I think what's exciting about building chips with kind of fundamentally new capabilities is you then also get to explore whether there are kind of gravitational pulls that you yourself get to pull the new model landscape in because of those properties and so for fractal you know this idea of having like 25 times more bandwidth per chip than a than an hbm-based chip we get to explore for instance internally these kind of ideas of like scaling laws for bandwidth basically you know the scaling laws traditionally we think of them as like flop scaling laws you know we”

Expects: Building chips with fundamentally new capabilities may allow their creators to influence the direction of the model landscape. · no date given · not yet resolved

“you know behaviour where really everybody who is deploying at scale is kind of trying to deploy as many separate platforms as they can I think one thing that will remain the case is that there will be a real need for kind of a diversity of supply as something like compute becomes so existential to these players there's a bit of a joke today that the sort of first party efforts their primary purpose”

Expects: Large AI players will probably continue to need a diverse supply of compute because compute is existential to them. · no date given · not yet resolved

“I think as you then see this move into chips that actually give new capabilities, you know, that's a place where, you know, I suddenly see for what we're doing a real need for everybody that wants to deploy AI at the frontier, they have to have some solution to running these models orders of magnitude faster.”

Expects: As chips provide new capabilities, every frontier AI deployer will need a solution capable of running models orders of magnitude faster. · no date given · not yet resolved

“make is explaining why we believe that over you know multiple decades the world sustains some kind of frontier third party chip players you know why does this not just roll up into these into these labs um and i think that comes down to the kind of asymmetric game that all of these labs and frontier players have to play uh where they're exposed to an enormous risk if they go all in on a hardware”

Expects: The speaker believes third-party frontier chip companies can persist for multiple decades because frontier labs face asymmetric risks from going all in on hardware. · no date given · not yet resolved