4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
Speaker

Stefano Ermon

Guest on No Priors: Artificial Intelligence | Technology | Startups. 186 claims across 1 episode, Sep 2026.

186claims, each timestamped
0 of 12signals on the brief
12open predictions

Positions over time

Every pair of statements that was compared. Only a verified change counts as a change of mind; rewording, added nuance and different questions do not.

No two statements by this speaker have been compared yet.

Predictions, in their words

As stated, each with its moment. A date appears only where the speaker gave one.

“I felt like this is going to be very hard as a problem. So it's going to keep me busy for my whole career and it's a good problem.”

Expects: Ermon expected generative modeling to be difficult enough to occupy his entire career. · no date given · not yet resolved

Stefano ErmonNo Priors · 18 Sep 2026
“I think everyone cares about speed in the sense that if you can give me the same quality but faster, people will always pick the faster solution.”

Expects: People will choose a faster solution when it provides the same quality as a slower one. · no date given · not yet resolved

Stefano ErmonNo Priors · 18 Sep 2026
“That's why it's so exciting because things are changing and then this technology is so important and so valuable that having something differentiated, I think will create value.”

Expects: The speaker thinks that a differentiated offering based on this technology will create value because the technology is important and valuable. · no date given · not yet resolved

Stefano ErmonNo Priors · 18 Sep 2026
“So being able to scale better along that axis will also matter.”

Expects: The speaker expects the ability to scale test-time compute more effectively to matter. · no date given · not yet resolved

Stefano ErmonNo Priors · 18 Sep 2026
“And so that's why we decided to bet on a diffusion-based LLM because it's inherently more parallel and the bitter lesson is that the more parallel solution is the one. And is the one that is eventually going to win.”

Expects: The speaker predicts that the more parallel solution will eventually win. · no date given · not yet resolved

Stefano ErmonNo Priors · 18 Sep 2026
“And so at the very least, as a lower bound, I think it could be addressable by models that are within a given latency budget, they would give you the highest possible quality.”

Expects: At least some latency-sensitive workloads could be served by models that maximize quality within a specified latency budget. · no date given · not yet resolved

Stefano ErmonNo Priors · 18 Sep 2026
“uh we still use a lot of the public data sets that people have created and evals and benchmarks so you know we're a startup we try to be scrappy we try to use existing things as much as possible and kind of like focus on the on the the aspects where we can have the highest impact and then where we can be the most differentiated and right now it's speed in the future who knows like it's possible that a diffusion based language model will be be maybe significantly more intelligent than an autoregressive one like nobody knows that that's why i think this is very exciting because we're developing these really powerful ai systems but it's all very fresh it's all very new uh i doubt we've discovered the best way of building these systems there's got to be alternative there's got to be other ways of building these models and and eventually yeah efficiency will be very important like if you think about the ai factor”

Expects: A diffusion-based language model might eventually be significantly more intelligent than an autoregressive model. · no date given · not yet resolved

Stefano ErmonNo Priors · 18 Sep 2026
“uh we still use a lot of the public data sets that people have created and evals and benchmarks so you know we're a startup we try to be scrappy we try to use existing things as much as possible and kind of like focus on the on the the aspects where we can have the highest impact and then where we can be the most differentiated and right now it's speed in the future who knows like it's possible that a diffusion based language model will be be maybe significantly more intelligent than an autoregressive one like nobody knows that that's why i think this is very exciting because we're developing these really powerful ai systems but it's all very fresh it's all very new uh i doubt we've discovered the best way of building these systems there's got to be alternative there's got to be other ways of building these models and and eventually yeah efficiency will be very important like if you think about the ai factor”

Expects: Whether a diffusion-based language model will eventually be significantly more intelligent than an autoregressive model is possible but unknown. · no date given · not yet resolved

Stefano ErmonNo Priors · 18 Sep 2026
“be maybe significantly more intelligent than an autoregressive one like nobody knows that that's why i think this is very exciting because we're developing these really powerful ai systems but it's all very fresh it's all very new uh i doubt we've discovered the best way of building these systems there's got to be alternative there's got to be other ways of building these models and and eventually yeah efficiency will be very important like if you think about the ai factor”

Expects: The speaker expects efficiency to become very important for AI systems. · no date given · not yet resolved

Stefano ErmonNo Priors · 18 Sep 2026
“be maybe significantly more intelligent than an autoregressive one like nobody knows that that's why i think this is very exciting because we're developing these really powerful ai systems but it's all very fresh it's all very new uh i doubt we've discovered the best way of building these systems there's got to be alternative there's got to be other ways of building these models and and eventually yeah efficiency will be very important like if you think about the ai factor”

Expects: Efficiency will eventually be very important in AI systems. · no date given · not yet resolved

Stefano ErmonNo Priors · 18 Sep 2026
All 12 predictions
“And so if that, you know, holds up at scale and you believe that maybe we'll get into tasks, where data becomes the bottleneck, then it becomes more interesting,”

Expects: Diffusion models' data-efficiency advantage, if it holds at scale, could be especially valuable for tasks where data is a bottleneck. · no date given · not yet resolved

Stefano ErmonNo Priors · 18 Sep 2026
“at least that right now i don't know what it's going to be in six months or a year but right now the the human ingenuity is still like super important and the ability to come up with the the right ideas and kind of like prune the space and kind of like identify directions that are more promising has been really important to us”

Expects: The speaker is uncertain how important human ingenuity will be to the team's work six months to a year later. · 18 Mar 2027 – 18 Sep 2027 · not yet resolved

Stefano ErmonNo Priors · 18 Sep 2026

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