Jamin Ball

“And so obviously Stripe is a very forward-leaning tech company. Your average business in the Fortune 500 isn't gonna show that level. Um, but it could s- show a same order of, or a, a, a same magnitude of growth.”

Expects: The average Fortune 500 company's token spending could grow by a similar order of magnitude relative to its other expenses, though it is unlikely to reach Stripe's token-spending level. · no date given · not yet resolved

“So if Stripe is saying we're gonna 15 to 20x- The spend on tokens relative to other expenses in the org, maybe you see something similar in the Fortune One- 500 go from 0.1% to 1%.”

Expects: If Stripe's token spending grows to 15–20 times its current level relative to other expenses, Fortune 500 companies might see token spending rise from 0.1% to 1% of expenses. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And so what does that tell you? The vast majority of their revenue is coming from their most recent, most powerful models, and that's something that I kind of expect to continue.”

Expects: Most of Anthropic's revenue will continue to come from its newest and most powerful models. · no date given · not yet resolved

“Uh, I think the trend will continue to be on a, as a percent of tokens, open weight kinda continues to eat share, but as a percent of wallet share in dollars, frontier continues to take the lion share.”

Expects: Open-weight models will gain share of total tokens, while frontier models will continue to capture the largest share of spending. · no date given · not yet resolved

“So I expect frontier tokens to be the most economically valuable to capture the most market share. I expect open weight and cheap tokens to capture the most market share in terms of total tokens.”

Expects: The speaker expects frontier tokens to capture the largest share of spending, while open-weight and cheap tokens capture the largest share of total token volume. · no date given · not yet resolved

“I think you have to ask yourself, will they continue to ramp compute and capacity? I think the answer is yes. I think if you ask anyone at Anthropic, again, this is all speculation, they'd probably say, "We wish we started doing it sooner.”

Expects: Anthropic will continue increasing its compute and capacity. · no date given · not yet resolved

“...the compute we have." It's, it's almost always... And, and I think a underrated factor on compute demands in the future will be compute that's used for safety and alignment and verification.”

Expects: The speaker believes future compute demand for AI safety, alignment, and verification will be an underrated factor. · no date given · not yet resolved

“Like I think more and more compute is going to go towards those functions, whether that's on research- ...or just on verification and alignment that happens at inference time.”

Expects: The speaker expects the amount of compute used for safety and alignment research, and for verification and alignment during inference, to increase. · no date given · not yet resolved

“You do see a lot more pushback. Um, midterms are coming up, right? Who, who kind of like takes control in like the House and the Senate? Like w- could have a big impact on regulation or lack thereof around data center and intelligence center build-outs.”

Expects: Control of the House and Senate after the midterms could significantly affect regulation of data-center and intelligence-center build-outs. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And I think you're gonna see the same thing, uh, with people buying and serving models and tokens.”

Expects: As the cost of models and tokens falls, people will buy and serve more of them, following a pattern similar to internet data transfer. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And you'll continue to see it. Think about, like, Jevon decision models.”

Expects: The speaker expects the described cost-and-usage pattern to continue. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And to me, if I believe the answer to that question is yes, and I think everything they've done historically has demonstrated that, I think they'll build a great business and will continue to.”

Expects: The speaker believes that if Anthropic can stay at the frontier, it will build and continue to build a great business; he thinks its historical actions demonstrate that it can stay at the frontier. · no date given · not yet resolved

“Like the reality is, is if Anthropic went public, um, a month ago, you know, the, the big route that you've seen in public markets recently, especially in semis and the AI trade, Anthropic would also be down even if the business was doing well.”

Expects: The speaker believes that if Anthropic had gone public a month earlier, its stock would have fallen during the recent public-market selloff in semiconductors and AI, even if the business was performing well. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And so like you do-- Im- imagine if they didn't have Opus 5.5 or Sonnet 5.5, right? Like who knows what the revenue growth and trajectory could have been.”

Expects: The speaker does not know what Anthropic's revenue growth and trajectory might have been without Opus 5.5 or Sonnet 5.5. · no date given · not yet resolved

“I think you'll continue to see domain-specific models, um, or models or like new types of models, decision models like Jev. Um, but I think the, I think the big labs, they are on the treadmill of continuously pumping out new models because guess what?”

Expects: The speaker expects continued development of domain-specific and novel model types, including decision models. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And like I'm not really sure what would cause that trend to stop. Um, I think models are only gonna take on longer-running tasks, um, more economically valuable tasks.”

Expects: AI models will take on tasks that run longer and have greater economic value. · no date given · not yet resolved

“I mean, it, it, it's kind of funny you bring this up. Like I had a hypothesis, you know, years ago that like, hey, maybe the labs will stop releasing models, and instead they'll just build applications and products powered by their models.”

Expects: AI labs might stop releasing models and instead build applications and products powered by those models. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And if they're powered by the best models that are never released publicly, hey, maybe th- they have the right to build all the best applications.”

Expects: AI labs that power their applications with the best models while keeping those models unreleased publicly may be able to build the best applications. · no date given · not yet resolved

“But I mean, maybe to your question, I do expect to see a much bigger push by both labs, Anthropic and OpenAI, into vertical applications and kinda like diversifying out of just delivering models.”

Expects: The speaker expects Anthropic and OpenAI to expand substantially into vertical applications and diversify beyond model delivery. · no date given · not yet resolved

“So long as the revenues show up, the compute obligations will be hit, um, the supply chains will, you know, continue to be saturated and constrained, and companies will continue to perform.”

Expects: If revenues materialize, compute obligations will be met, supply chains will remain saturated and constrained, and companies will continue performing. · no date given · not yet resolved

“Um, and there was no debt on, on the A- Anthropic balance sheet. Now, they have facilities in place that they could draw down, and so would it surprise me if you start to see debt on their balance sheet in the future?”

Expects: Anthropic taking on balance-sheet debt in the future would not surprise the speaker. · no date given · not yet resolved

“You know, when you're measuring things in like whole number percents of GDP- ... uh, you're, that's, that's huge. And so like the credit markets, debt markets need to be super, super, super deep and super, super open for that to happen.”

Expects: Financing an AI infrastructure build-out amounting to whole-number percentages of GDP would require very deep and open credit and debt markets. · no date given · not yet resolved

“... line of sight to that slowing down for the next few years.”

Expects: The speaker does not expect supply-chain demand for AI infrastructure to slow over the next few years. · from 7 Nov 2026 · not yet resolved

“Um, you know, again, that's, that's, those are just the big models, right? Like you're also gonna have tons of small models, um- But I know the big models are getting bigger, which only require more memory, um, and more compute to run.”

Expects: Many small models will coexist with increasingly large models; larger models will require more memory and compute for inference. · no date given · not yet resolved

“I think you're gonna see a lot more direct philanthropy. What's a big issue people have with philanthropy is, well, you're gonna donate a bunch of money, and then middlemen are gonna take half of it.”

Expects: The speaker expects direct philanthropy to increase substantially. · no date given · not yet resolved

“Um, you know, if you're 15 years old, money doesn't show up in your account. I think donations will, and so you could be a 15-year-old that does have a $250 donation from Michael Dell sitting in your account.”

Expects: The speaker expects donations to appear in accounts for 15-year-olds; for example, a 15-year-old could have a $250 donation from Michael Dell in their account. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And it's Anthropic. The reality is, is- ... I think people would, people would make time for-”

Expects: The speaker thinks people would make time to participate in Anthropic's IPO process. · no date given · not yet resolved

“Uh, but to me at least, what it demonstrates is they really haven't despite... I mean, despite the insane ramp in revenue, you know, growing over 1000% year over year in the Q2 quarter, there's probably still a, a lot of room left, um, for them to kind of continue to penetrate their TAM.”

Expects: Anthropic probably still has substantial room to expand its penetration of its total addressable market, despite revenue growth of more than 1,000% year over year in Q2. · no date given · not yet resolved

“How are you gonna do it?" Some of that is very back weighted. Um, but I, I, I think when I think about the trajectory of the business, um, the TAM that's been penetrated today, I don't think it's far-fetched at all to say, "Hey, like the business trajectory will more than cover the revenue, will more than cover the, um, the expense."”

Expects: The speaker considers it plausible that Anthropic's business trajectory will generate enough revenue to cover its $855 billion in commitments, despite some commitments being far back-weighted. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And w- and with, with Opus 5.5, you saw some re-acceleration. And so would it surprise me if you saw a re-acceleration of revenue and run rate in October? And October won't be in Q3. That's the first month of Q4. No, it wouldn't surprise me. 'Cause I do think a lot of the third-party data is showing and suggesting that.”

Expects: The speaker would not be surprised if Anthropic's revenue and run rate re-accelerated in October, the first month of Q4, based on third-party data. · 1 Oct 2026 – 31 Oct 2026 · not yet resolved

“You know, you wanna generalize knowledge work. These models have generalized the best as they've been stronger in coding. Um, but it also can give it some-- a soft underbelly to other areas. Maybe it's visual thinking and reasoning. You're seeing great models there like Ellorian. Maybe it's decision models like Jev and TypeSafe, right? Like there's, there's a lot of different, uh- Soft underbellies they may have, which is opport- which is great.”

Expects: AI companies’ focus on coding may leave them with weaknesses in other domains, including visual thinking and reasoning or decision models. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And I think that will continue.”

Expects: Jamin Ball expects the development of better, cheaper models for other domains to continue. · no date given · not yet resolved

“You need to. I think it's gonna be really hard as an application company over the long haul to survive without a research team internally. Um, it's one of the, like an investment theses that I have that if, you know, investing in applications, like, I wanna believe there's two things: really strong product org, but also a really strong research org.”

Expects: Application companies will probably have great difficulty surviving over the long term without an internal research team. · no date given · not yet resolved

“I think the way compute gets build, um, is gonna look different in the future. It's gonna be expensive. There's gonna be more upfront payments, right? Like, I do think you should expect to see the profitability profile of these labs, um, kind of go the other way in the short term as they shift to investing in growth and investing in compute.”

Expects: AI labs' profitability profiles will probably worsen in the short term as they redirect investment toward growth and compute. · no date given · not yet resolved

“I think the way compute gets build, um, is gonna look different in the future. It's gonna be expensive. There's gonna be more upfront payments, right? Like, I do think you should expect to see the profitability profile of these labs, um, kind of go the other way in the short term as they shift to investing in growth and investing in compute.”

Expects: The speaker expects future compute infrastructure to be built differently, with greater expense and more upfront payments. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And OpenAI and Anthropic, the reality is, is they're a huge percentage of the overall AI revenues, and so everyone looks to them as a proxy for the rest of the industry. So if they keep growing, which again, I think a lot of the bears would say they're gonna stop growing because open weight models are gonna eat their lunch, like this, this, and that.”

Expects: Many bearish observers argue that OpenAI and Anthropic will stop growing because open-weight models will take their customers or market share. · no date given · not yet resolved

“The sell side research analysts at all the banks will, will build their models, will kinda have a forward, a forward number. I don't know where that's gonna shake out. Um, but I, I, I do think you'll, you know, you'll, you'll see, um, a lot of optimism, um, about what the future of this business could look like.”

Expects: The speaker expects substantial optimism about the business's future prospects. · no date given · not yet resolved

“The sell side research analysts at all the banks will, will build their models, will kinda have a forward, a forward number. I don't know where that's gonna shake out. Um, but I, I, I do think you'll, you know, you'll, you'll see, um, a lot of optimism, um, about what the future of this business could look like.”

Expects: The speaker expects bank sell-side analysts to publish financial models and forward estimates, but does not know what those estimates will ultimately be. · no date given · not yet resolved

“But again, it's-- Would it surprise me if it was much higher than expected or some-- You know, anything could happen. It's anyone trying to predict the future, at le- especially in the short term-”

Expects: The business substantially exceeds expectations; the speaker says this would not surprise him, while emphasizing that short-term forecasting is highly difficult and outcomes are uncertain. · no date given · not yet resolved

“It's like, "Hey, I'm feeling full." And I think debt markets just are gonna go through a little bit of indigestion. They need to figure out, well, do I feel good? Do I feel great? Hey, some of these projects that were promised, are they being built on time? Is the revenue flowing back to me? And I do think the credit and debt markets will ebb and flow, um, because there are just a thousand reasons why, you know, a project could get delayed, right?”

Expects: Debt markets are expected to experience some indigestion while lenders assess whether projects are on time and whether revenue is reaching them. · no date given · not yet resolved

“So, hey, on, at on some level, I'm sure, you know, especially for internal chip efforts, right? Like the OpenAI team will-- might- may wanna develop their own data centers for their Jalapeno chips, right? And Anthropic, same thing for their chips. Um, but I'm sure they're also very happy for other people to take on that risk, um, because it's someone else's core competency and, you know, a lot of debt could add a lot of blow-up risk.”

Expects: OpenAI and Anthropic may want to develop their own data centers for their respective chips. · no date given · not yet resolved

“I don't know, 40%, 50%? Um, let's say it's 40%. And I don't know, now we're getting too tough in math in my head, but you know, let's say that gets you to, I don't know, 110, 120 gigawatts of total capacity brought online over the next five years. Let's say 100, just so the math is easier.”

Expects: The speaker estimates that, assuming OpenAI and Anthropic represent 40% of total capacity, about 110–120 gigawatts of total capacity will come online over five years, rounded to 100 gigawatts for easier calculation. · 7 Nov 2026 – 7 Nov 2031 · not yet resolved

“But I think it's like a real debate in the world, you know? And then you could see a pretty wide range of outcomes. You know, do we really add 50 gigawatts of capacity next year as an industry, um- ... or is it 20 or 30? You know, like who knows? I just know everyone you talk to in the supply chain is saying, "You know, we, we have, we have orders or indications for orders that are well over 100% of our capacity."”

Expects: Whether the AI industry will add 50 gigawatts of capacity next year or only 20–30 gigawatts; the speaker sees substantial uncertainty. · 1 Jan 2027 – 31 Dec 2027 · not yet resolved

“Ooh, man. It's, um, again, in a world that's highly unknown and unknowable and uncertain, I kind of fall back to what are my core beliefs that I do have conviction in, and that, that is the world's gonna consume more models, world's gonna consume more power, world's gonna consume more compute, networking, and storage, and we're gonna need to build a lot more data centers to serve the intelligence we're building.”

Expects: Global consumption of models, power, compute, networking, and storage will increase, requiring many more data centers to serve the intelligence being developed. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And like eventually the triangles invert. And so, hey, at some point in the future, I think the apps and the agents will be the biggest part of the TAM. We're just early on, and there's lots of opportunity in- ... the other parts of-”

Expects: The speaker expects applications and agents eventually to account for the largest share of total addressable market, while noting that the market is currently early and other layers still offer opportunity. · no date given · not yet resolved