Vlad Tenev

“But that said, I think that we're still, we're still at a low percentage of the total trading is agentic. So, um, I think we'll have some warning.”

Expects: The speaker expects to receive a warning as agentic trading's share of total trading increases. · no date given · not yet resolved

“I mean, we'll see it increasing, and I, I don't think that, you know, we're, we're gonna be at the point, you know, imminently where agentic mediated trades are, you know, a double-digit percentage of, of the activity. I think we'll have some time.”

Expects: Agentic trading is expected to grow, but agent-mediated trades are not expected to account for a double-digit percentage of trading activity imminently. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And then we have tokenization of privates, which solves that problem in a different way, but right now for outside of the US. And the North Star is can we get a private company to be real time tradable twenty four/seven in fractional quantities just like a stock or a crypto?”

Expects: Robinhood's goal is to make private-company ownership tradable in real time, 24/7, and in fractional quantities, like stocks or cryptocurrency. · no date given · not yet resolved

“So I, I think more work needs to be done, and we're, we're gonna be at the forefront of continuing to push for that.”

Expects: Robinhood intends to lead continued efforts to change the accredited-investor qualification process. · no date given · not yet resolved

“So, uh, when it's successful, I think it'll lead to, uh, a much more stable and prosperous society in, in many decades.”

Expects: If the Trump accounts program succeeds, it will produce a much more stable and prosperous society over many decades. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And I think what appealed to me when I got to grad school was this idea that if you are... if you create a m- a new mathematical theory, you know, may- maybe you'll be remembered for a really long time and, you know, just like kids in school, everyone learns, you know, Gauss and Riemann and all these greats. If you create a theory, maybe kids will be learning and Sort of like thinking about your work hundred, hundreds of years from now.”

Expects: Creating a new mathematical theory might lead to its creator being remembered for a long time, with students potentially learning and thinking about the work hundreds of years later. · no date given · not yet resolved

“I mean, I have thoughts on both of them, but on, on the second one, it's much more interesting. I think that a world where you have the AI labs on a proprietary basis making all the discoveries and you have like the OpenAI or Anthropic data centers that are just running code, you know, managed by the employees of those companies and, you know, they're vertically integrating and, you know, producing all the drugs and selling the drugs to people, um, making all the mathematical and, and physical discoveries and publishing all the papers. If all of that is happening and it's owned by the AI labs themselves, I, I think that's a bit of like a dystopian outcome and unlikely to happen for, for a couple of reasons.”

Expects: Vlad Tenev considers it dystopian and unlikely that AI labs will privately control discoveries and vertically integrate into producing and selling drugs, making mathematical and physical discoveries, and publishing papers. · no date given · not yet resolved

“Um, not, not just like technological and market, but I think also like if, if that happens to a significant- ... degree, people will-- They'll lose their license-”

Expects: If AI labs control discoveries and production to a significant degree, people will lose their license to operate. · no date given · not yet resolved

“I, I think for sure. Um, and I think that's how it's gonna happen. That's the likely scenario one year from now. I think you also have the, uh, the, the confounding factor of a lot of the people that are going into these AI labs are former researchers, and so they're like excited by doing research and, and I think they're confused as to why this is being poorly received.”

Expects: Vlad Tenev predicts that, one year from the conversation, the likely scenario is that a layperson will use GPT-6 to produce a mathematical result. · 5 Nov 2027 – 5 Nov 2027 · not yet resolved

“Anyone with a smartphone and a non-custodial wallet can now get exposure to US markets at incredibly low cost. So in the same way that I think stablecoin became the default way for people in these countries to get access to dollars, stock tokens and products like that will be the default way to get access to US equities, um, for, for, for all of these people.”

Expects: Stock tokens and similar products are expected to become the default means for people in countries with less-developed financial systems to access US equities, analogous to how stablecoins provide access to dollars. · no date given · not yet resolved

“And I think the outcome of that is there will just be more trading activity. Um, I think at first it'll be concentrated in a relatively small group of sophisticated people, but their trading activity will likely increase quite substantially, and then over time it'll just filter to more and more of the population.”

Expects: Agentic trading tools will increase trading activity, first substantially among a small group of sophisticated users and later across a broader population. · no date given · not yet resolved

“So individual investors that got in during the public offering could make 1000X. Now, if you have, uh, an AI lab that goes public at a trillion or two trillion, in order for a- an individual investor at IPO to make that type of return, they'd have to get into the quadrillions, right?”

Expects: An AI lab valued at one or two trillion dollars would need to reach a valuation in the quadrillions for an IPO investor to earn a 1,000x return. · no date given · not yet resolved