The speaker describes a bear case that a new AI lab cannot compete at the frontier if its compute is more than one order of magnitude below that of established labs.

“And so it's kind of one of these, I mean, this is the bear case on all these neo labs, which is, you know, and, and you talk to many smart folks, and what they might tell you is, "Hey, if you wanna really compete and be- have like a soda model at the frontier, you can't, you can't lo- you can't, uh, go more than one order of magnitude of compute less than the labs."”