causal claim
The speaker thinks factory conversion could take less time with superintelligence because the fastest historical precedent involved avoidable mistakes and ordinary human bureaucratic problems.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“we think it will potentially take less with superintelligence because,”
“first of all, if you look at the history of this process,”
“despite this being the fastest anybody has ever done this,”
“it was actually kind of a comedy of errors.”
“They made a bunch of really silly mistakes in this process.”
“even just doesn't have the normal human bureaucratic problems,”Play from 55:52Report a misattribution
75%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
85%importance to the conversation
92%confidence the claim was read correctly