prediction claim
Under the assumptions that an H100 can run human-brain software, that software can earn about $50,000–$100,000 annually in U.S. wages, and an H100 costs about $30,000, the H100 could pay for itself in roughly a year, suggesting an economic doubling time of about a year.
Tamay Besiroglu · AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu · 17 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“if you run the software of the human brain,”
“you can then deploy that in the economy and earn.”
“and earn say human wages on the order of 50 to 100k a year or whatever in the U.S.”
“And so then it pays itself back because it costs on the order of 30k per H100 and so you get a doubling time of maybe on the order of a year, right?”Play from 2:41:22Report a misattribution
60%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
90%importance to the conversation
86%confidence the claim was read correctly