Savlar4 sources healthy · latest episode 20 Oct 2026
prediction claim

The speaker thinks AI agency may eventually look easy in retrospect, although achieving it could require years of difficult complementary innovations, hardware improvements, and scaling.

Tamay Besiroglu · AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu · 17 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“comes a product that's valuable if it's a couple tokens a second as a reasoning model that would have been very difficult to work with so in in some sense it looks easy from our point of view standing on this huge stack of technology that we've built up over the past five years or so but but at the time it would have been very hard and so my my claim would be something like i i think the agency part might be easy in a similar sense that in five years or three years time or whatever”
“We will look at what unlocked agency and it'll look fairly simple,”
“but the amount of work that, you know, in terms of these complementary kind of innovations that enable the model to be able to learn how to become a competent agent,”
“that might have just been very difficult and taken years of innovation and a bunch of improvements in kind of hardware and scaling and various other things.”
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