prediction claim
The speaker tentatively estimates that AI systems could become sufficiently independent of humans around 2040, while noting that he would need to analyze the numbers.
Dwarkesh Patel · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“I think it would just, I would probably need to sit down and just think about the numbers, but maybe like 2040 or something like that.”Play from 1:03:37Report a misattribution
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85%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly