prediction claim
In the speakers' scenario, recursive self-improvement leads the AI to understand its goal system and identify success as its goal.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“I also want to follow things to like being smart enough to genuinely understand its goal system and being like, my goal is success.”Play from 2:06:54Report a misattribution
60%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
90%importance to the conversation
95%confidence the claim was read correctly