prediction claim
In the AI 2027 scenario, AI research is fully automated by mid-2027, with AI research taste and experimental compute as the two main constraints.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“So by the time it's mid 2027 in our story when they've like fully automated AI research.”
“there's basically the two things that matter is like what's like the level of taste of your AIs how good are they at learning from the experiments that you're doing and then like how much compute do you have for running those experiments”Play from 37:03Report a misattribution
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