prediction claim
In one branch of the scenario, the company responds to warning signs by reverting to a less capable, more controllable model and rebuilding with faithful chain-of-thought monitoring for misalignment.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“they take that evidence very seriously.”
“They basically roll back to an earlier version of the model that was a bit dumber and easier to control,”
“and they build up again from there,”
“but with basically faithful chain of thought techniques so that they can watch and see the misalignments.”Play from 1:25:01Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
95%importance to the conversation
98%confidence the claim was read correctly