prediction claim

The speakers doubt that 20 years of alignment research at a fixed level of compute, following a pause in progress, would yield much progress on relevant alignment questions.

Unidentified speaker · AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu · 17 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“we don't really believe that if you just pause and then you do research for 20 years at a fixed level of compute scale, that you're actually going to make that much.”

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