prediction claim
The speaker expects that if decision-makers proceed early under competitive pressure, they may mishandle later evidence of misalignment even after AI systems become vastly superintelligent and widely deployed, particularly amid fears about Chinese AI capabilities.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“they proceed with some sort of like shallow patch you know so so i do expect there to be warning signs like that and then if they do make those decisions in the race dynamics earlier on then i think that when the systems are like vastly super intelligent and they're even more powerful because they've been deployed halfway through the economy already and everyone's getting really scared by the news reports about the new chinese killer drones or whatever the chinese ais are building on the side of the pacific i'm imagining basically just like similar things playing out so that even”
“That even if there is some concerning evidence that someone finds where some of the superintelligence in some silo somewhere slipped up and did something that's like pretty suspicious,”Play from 1:27:12Report a misattribution
70%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
95%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly