opinion claim
Despite uncertainty about the relevant factors, the speaker believes a substantial portion of possible outcomes would go okay.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“All of those things I'm completely agnostic on, but that leaves like a pretty big chunk of probability space where we just do okay.”Play from 1:36:57Report a misattribution
75%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
85%importance to the conversation
96%confidence the claim was read correctly