In the AI 2040 Plan A scenario, an international agreement prevents intelligence explosions and recursive AI self-improvement, keeping AI near top human level for several years before superintelligence arrives in 2040.

“I think, a very important fact about the world is that even if you pause at top expert level.”

“everything changes dramatically like roughly what happens in our scenario is instead of doing an intelligence explosion there's an international deal to ban intelligence explosions and to not have ais recursively self-improving and so they sort of end up pausing at roughly top human level with ais at least for several years eventually they get the super intelligence in particular in 2040 they get the super intelligence but there's this like period during the 2030s where they basically have”