prediction claim
The speaker expects superintelligence to work out how to build a Dyson sphere faster than unassisted humans with an IQ of 100.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“So in the same way that the ethnobotanists could probably figure out which plants work in which way is faster than the Aborigines did,”
“I think the superintelligence will be able to figure out how to make a Dyson sphere faster than unassisted IQ 100 humans would.”Play from 1:21:17Report a misattribution
75%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
80%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly