4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
prediction claim

The scenario is named for 2027 because the forecast expects the preceding developments to begin paying off then.

Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“And then we focus on and we name the scenario after 2027 because that is when this starts to pay off.”
7:39Report a misattribution
0.90how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.75importance to the conversation
0.92confidence the claim was read correctly