People often lack good intuitions about the progress effects of changing compute because the relevant experiments are rarely conducted.

“like how much progress should you expect that's the kind of question and i think people don't have i think it's hard for people to have good intuitions about this because people usually don't run the experiment so you don't get to see at a company level or at an industry level what would have happened if the entire industry had 30 times less compute maybe as an individual like what would happen if you had 30 times less compute you might have a better idea about”