prediction claim
AI compute is expected to be about 10 times its current level in 2027.
Dwarkesh Patel · AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu · 17 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“if you just look at like what kinds of progress is needed to make a more general intelligence you might be right that it needs more experimental compute but like we're just getting as you guys have documented we're just getting like a shit ton more compute every single year for the next few years so you can imagine that intelligence for the next two years where in 2027 there'll be like 10x more compute than there is now for AI and you'll have this effect where the AIs that are doing software R&D”Play from 45:27Report a misattribution
75%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
85%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly