4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
prediction claim

AI compute is expected to be about 10 times its current level in 2027.

Dwarkesh Patel · AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu · 17 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“if you just look at like what kinds of progress is needed to make a more general intelligence you might be right that it needs more experimental compute but like we're just getting as you guys have documented we're just getting like a shit ton more compute every single year for the next few years so you can imagine that intelligence for the next two years where in 2027 there'll be like 10x more compute than there is now for AI and you'll have this effect where the AIs that are doing software R&D”
45:27Report a misattribution
0.75how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.85importance to the conversation
0.94confidence the claim was read correctly
AI compute is expected to be about 10 times its current level in 2027. · Savlar