Savlar4 sources healthy · latest episode 20 Oct 2026
causal claim

For an AI with a persistent per-second risk of catastrophic error, reducing that risk by an order of magnitude increases the time it can operate before an error occurs.

Unidentified speaker · Three Red Lines We're About to Cross Toward AGI (Daniel Kokotajlo, Gary Marcus, Dan Hendrycks) · 24 Jun 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“at any given point then you know if it's like a one percent chance per second then after like 50 seconds they're going to get into an error but then if that goes down by an order of magnitude then they can go for more seconds and so forth and so so the thought here i would say this is evidence that they are just getting generally speaking more reliable better at not only not making mistakes but recovering from the mistakes they make not infinitely better they're still less reliable than humans but”
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