causal claim
The speaker believes software progress has been driven substantially by compute scaling as well as cognitive effort, because additional GPUs allow more experiments and experiments at larger scales.
Unidentified speaker · AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu · 17 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“than people give me credit for i think you need more skills to do it and definitely more than models are displaying right now and on top of that even if you did automate the process of research we think a lot of the software progress has been driven not by uh cognitive efforts so that has played a part but it has been driven by compute scaling you just have more gpus you can do more experiments you can write more things your experiments can be done at larger scales and um”
“That is just a very important driver.”Play from 26:16Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
90%importance to the conversation
98%confidence the claim was read correctly