4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
prediction claim

The estimate is that superintelligences will produce one million robots per month about a year after they begin wanting robots.

Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“So I actually argued with Daniel about this recently about one interesting case that I can go over is we have an estimate that about a year after the superintelligence start wanting robots,”
“they're producing a million units of robots per month.”
54:07Report a misattribution
0.80how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.90importance to the conversation
0.97confidence the claim was read correctly