Even assuming experiments are not especially important, imperfect estimates from AI and other software suggest that overall algorithmic efficiency may not grow hyperbolically or faster than exponentially.

“about how to harness your compute more effectively that also tells you that actually the scaling of compute might be very important and I think there's just like many pieces of evidence that points towards this complementarity picture so I would say that not only like even if you assume that experiments are not particularly important the evidence we have both from estimates of AI and other software although the data is a bit”

“A bit is not great suggests that, you know, maybe you don't get this kind of hyperbolic faster than exponential super growth in the overall algorithmic efficiency of systems.”