causal claim
Impressive human-performed tasks are a narrow subset of the tasks required for competence and economic viability, so progress on them should not strongly update beliefs about AI systems' general competence.
Tamay Besiroglu · AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu · 17 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“And but we shouldn't update too strongly about just their general competence or something,”
“because we should recognize that this is a very narrow subset of relevant tasks that humans do in order to be a competent.”
“and economically viable agent.”Play from 34:10Report a misattribution
85%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
80%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly