The speaker estimates that current training runs use about 10^26 floating-point operations and predicts that they will increase by a few orders of magnitude within the next couple of years.

“a good way to get your prior so to speak but then you should update based on actual trends on the benchmarks and so forth which is what I'm about to get to but the the reason why I mentioned this prior process is that 10 to the 45 floating point operations isn't actually that far away from where we are right now right now we're at like what like 10 to the 26 or something for the training runs and we're going to be crossing a few orders of magnitude”

“in the next couple years and so even if you just had like a an even if you just smeared out your probability mass with maximum uncertainty across the like”