The speaker estimates that developing the o1 reinforcement-learning system took at least two years after GPT-4's release.

“every single layer of this has been much harder than the strongest optimist expected it seems like there have been significant difficulties in increasing the pre-training size at least from rumors about field training runs or underwhelming training runs at labs it seems like building up these arlen i'm like total outside view i know nothing about the actual engineering involved there but just from an outside view it seems like building up the o1 like rl clearly took”

“much at least two years after GPT-4 was released and with these things are also their economic impact and the kinds of things you would immediately expect based on benchmarks for them to be especially capable at isn't overwhelming like the call center of workers are haven't been fired yet so the why not just say that like look at higher scale it'll probably get even more difficult”