prediction claim
In the favorable scenario being discussed, humanity avoids doom and avoids a completely uncaring psychopath gaining power.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“assuming things go incredibly well,”
“we've avoided doom,”
“we've avoided having some psychopath in power who doesn't care at all.”Play from 2:16:30Report a misattribution
80%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
90%importance to the conversation
95%confidence the claim was read correctly