If the current AI trajectory continues, an agent only slightly better than all humans at AI research might be replicated hundreds of thousands or millions of times and run faster, overcoming other bottlenecks and producing rapid recursive self-improvement.

“i think people imagine that even once like once you have a an agent which is better than all humans at AI research even if it's like 0.1 better than all humans then the fact that you can run like you know hundreds of thousands if not millions of these in parallel you can run them much faster like chips going to speed up that's going to outweigh every other like bottleneck and like you're eventually just going to like hit this like very fast takeoff with recursive self-improvement I could imagine that if we continue along the trajectory that we're currently on”