prediction claim
In both scenario branches, the United States and China engage in a race accompanied by an economy-wide arms buildup in 2028, as both sides rapidly industrialize.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“And then in both scenarios, there's then the race with China and there's this crazy arms buildup throughout the economy in 2028 as both sides, you know, rapidly try to industrialize basically.”Play from 1:25:42Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
90%importance to the conversation
96%confidence the claim was read correctly