opinion claim
The speaker doubts that a three- or six-month lead held by the leading U.S. AI project over a serious competitor would be used for good purposes.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“But I think that I've now become somewhat disillusioned and think that even if we do have like, you know, a three month lead, a six month lead between like the leading U.S. project and any serious competitor,”
“it's not at all foregone conclusion that they will burn that lead for good purposes,”Play from 1:50:08Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
90%importance to the conversation
99%confidence the claim was read correctly