4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
opinion claim

Qualitative objections to AI-driven growth require additional assumptions to become coherent objections to a specific quantitative growth prediction.

Tamay Besiroglu · AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu · 17 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“And so this is like a very quantitatively specific prediction about,”
“you know, and then there's the response,”
“well,”
“you have Baumol effects and then like,”
“okay,”
“well,”
“what does this mean?”
“Like, does this predict it doubles every two years or every five years?”
“Like, you need just more assumptions in order to make this a coherent objection.”
2:41:42Report a misattribution
0.90how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
0.75importance to the conversation
0.92confidence the claim was read correctly