prediction claim
If the current trend continues, the speaker projects the frontier labs’ compute measure to increase from about 2 at the beginning of the year to nearly 6 at year-end, 18 by the end of 2027, and 54 by the end of 2028.
Dwarkesh Patel · Dylan Patel – Anthropic & OpenAI will have most of the world’s compute by 2028 · 25 Aug 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“But if you keep the current trend going,”
“it goes from like two at the beginning of this year to close to like six at the end of this year, just multiplying out by three,”
“18 by the end of 2027,”
“54 by the end of 2028.”Play from 5:32Report a misattribution
80%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
85%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly