The speaker predicts that, as compute continues to grow, each AI lab could probably have enough compute by the end of 2030, and possibly sooner, to run hundreds of millions of human-level intelligences at then-current capability levels.

“a given level of compute allows you to basically run a 3x bigger effective population every single year and also compute is growing in background anyways and so you could have a situation where each of the labs by the end of 2030 probably much sooner but let's say by the end of 2030 has enough compute to run let's say hundreds of millions of human level intelligences based on what the capabilities will be at that point and then i think people are not thinking seriously the current level of progress means that by the”