prediction claim
If everything goes right, the speaker estimates that superintelligence could reduce factory-conversion time to about one year, roughly three times faster than the World War II bomber conversions.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
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“and then the super intelligences will be good at the logistical issues navigating bureaucracies. So we estimated maybe if everything goes right, we can do this three times faster than the bomber conversions in World War II,”
“so that's about I'm a year.”Play from 56:17Report a misattribution
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