4 sources healthy · latest episode 9 Nov 2026
prediction claim

If everything goes right, the speaker estimates that superintelligence could reduce factory-conversion time to about one year, roughly three times faster than the World War II bomber conversions.

Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“and then the super intelligences will be good at the logistical issues navigating bureaucracies. So we estimated maybe if everything goes right, we can do this three times faster than the bomber conversions in World War II,”
“so that's about I'm a year.”
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