opinion claim
The speaker considers Daniel's fast-scenario estimate extremely plausible and worth preparing for, while clarifying that it is not necessarily the speaker's main prediction.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“It's an estimate I think is extremely plausible that we should be prepared for.”
“I'm defending it here against a hypothetical skeptic who says absolutely not, no way. But it's not necessarily my main line prediction.”Play from 1:23:18Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
80%importance to the conversation
94%confidence the claim was read correctly