Savlar4 sources healthy · latest episode 20 Oct 2026
causal claim

A technological lead might not make a country comfortable going to war if the opponent's existing technology already provides strong deterrence.

Unidentified speaker · AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu · 17 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“like enough to take a risk because like if you go to war with china uh i mean for example if the u.s went to war with if you replace china today with china from 1990”
“or if you replace Russia today with Russia from like 1970 or 1980,”
“it's possible that their ICBM and whatever technology is already enough.”
“Like it's already enough to make like have very strong deterrence. So maybe even that lead,”
“a technological lead is not sufficient so that you would feel comfortable going to war. So that seems possible.”
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