prediction claim
The scenario envisions hundreds of thousands to one million AI agents; at that scale, agent quantity is no longer the bottleneck, while research taste and compute are bottlenecks.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“once you start getting like 90x serial speed you're just like bottlenecked on the other stuff and so like additional improvements in serial speed basically don't help that much um with respect to the quantity of course yeah we're imagining you get like hundreds of thousands of ai agents a million ai agents but that just means you could bottleneck on the other stuff like you've got tons of parallel agents that's no longer your bottleneck what do you get bottlenecked on taste and compute”Play from 36:40Report a misattribution
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