descriptive claim
The AI 2027 scenario models algorithmic progress as continuous improvement, not as discrete jumps from zero to 5× to 25×.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“Another thing also is I think people equivocate between”
“in fast and or between slow and continuous right so like if you look at our scenario there's this like continuous”
“trend that runs through the whole thing of this algorithmic progress multiplier and we're not having discrete jumps from like zero to 5x to 25x we have this continuous improvement so i think continuous is not the crux the crux is like is it going to be this fast you know and we don't know maybe it'll be slower maybe it'll be faster but like we have our arguments for why we think maybe this fast”Play from 32:42Report a misattribution
95%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
70%importance to the conversation
98%confidence the claim was read correctly