The speaker says progress at every layer of AI development has been substantially more difficult than the strongest optimists anticipated.

“every single layer of this has been much harder than the strongest optimist expected it seems like there have been significant difficulties in increasing the pre-training size at least from rumors about field training runs or underwhelming training runs at labs it seems like building up these arlen i'm like total outside view i know nothing about the actual engineering involved there but just from an outside view it seems like building up the o1 like rl clearly took”