An individual's experience with 30 times less compute may offer some evidence, but it is a local experiment that may be affected by spillovers from others with more compute.

“like how much progress should you expect that's the kind of question and i think people don't have i think it's hard for people to have good intuitions about this because people usually don't run the experiment so you don't get to see at a company level or at an industry level what would have happened if the entire industry had 30 times less compute maybe as an individual like what would happen if you had 30 times less compute you might have a better idea about”

“but that's a very local experiment and you might be benefiting a lot from spillovers from other people who like actually have more compute”