prediction claim
In the hypothetical, overall AI progress would be about 2.5 times faster: algorithmic progress would advance five times faster while compute continued at its usual rate.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“Basically, things would be going like 2.5x faster where the algorithms would be advancing at 5x speed,”
“but the compute is still stuck at the usual speed.”25:29Report a misattribution
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