prediction claim
AI 2027 presents a month-by-month scenario of AI progress from the present to AGI in 2027 and potentially superintelligence in 2028.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“First of all is we just want to have a concrete scenario at all.”
“What we wanted to do is provide a story,”
“provide the transitional fossils.”
“go up to 2027 when there's AGI,”
“2028 when there's potentially super intelligence,”
“show on a month by month level what happened.”Play from 0:38Report a misattribution
85%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
90%importance to the conversation
96%confidence the claim was read correctly