descriptive claim
The speaker estimates their probability of doom at about 20%, which they say is the lowest on the team.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“and maybe related to that, my P-Doom is the lowest of anyone on the team.”
“I'm more like 20%. I think that we,”Play from 1:34:39Report a misattribution
95%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
75%importance to the conversation
98%confidence the claim was read correctly