At the current rate of progress, a fixed amount of compute is expected to support an effective population of human-level intelligences about three times larger each year.

“The current rate of progress makes it so that”

“a given level of compute allows you to basically run a 3x bigger effective population every single year and also compute is growing in background anyways and so you could have a situation where each of the labs by the end of 2030 probably much sooner but let's say by the end of 2030 has enough compute to run let's say hundreds of millions of human level intelligences based on what the capabilities will be at that point and then i think people are not thinking seriously the current level of progress means that by the”